The US Navy will publicly report escorting a commercial vessel through the Red Sea within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-29 at 33% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-29.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory scenario, whose most likely outcome pairs continued Houthi support with US naval convoy escorts. No new escort is established by the supplied signals.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 29in 30d
Made: Sep 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Treasury will announce a larger auction size for at least one Treasury-bill tenor than at its preceding auction of the same tenor within 30 days.

geopolitical45%

The Federal Reserve or a senior Fed official will publicly signal 'higher for longer' rate guidance (no cut, explicit hawkish language) at its next scheduled communication within 30 days.

geopolitical67%

Iran will conduct a harassment, boarding, or seizure action against a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

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The US Navy will publicly report escorting a commercial vessel through the Red Sea within 30 days.

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