A China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-03 at 15% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Derived from: China PLA actor-belief analysis raising territorial-assertion probability from 8% to 21% around National Day, and the knowledge-bank assessment of increased East China Sea patrols.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 4d
Made: Oct 3

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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A China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.

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