Meta Platforms (META) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $592.10, 4% from $616.77 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.155.

Big Tech Antitrust Showdown Nash equilibrium: 'US chooses Pursue breakup; markets chooses Long small-cap competitors' (mixed, 70% confidence), implying regulatory overhang risk specifically for the largest platform names.

Probability

39%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.