HITBrier 0.489

Early-confirmed: CLF hit target below 11.75 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 11.58 (started at 12.50).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctCLF

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $11.75, 6% from $12.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.489.

US-China Trade War Escalation Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict likely) with bearish market impact; CLF's steel/industrial-metals exposure to China demand and tariff retaliation risk makes it a direct proxy for this collapse.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$11.75

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) will close at least 8% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $10.85, 8% from $11.79 at creation)

market78%

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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $11.75, 6% from $12.50 at creation)

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