L3Harris Technologies (LHX) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $249.49, 4% from $239.89 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 79% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.627.

Derived from the 80% composite escalation risk score spanning Taiwan Strait, Hormuz, and DPRK provocation windows, plus Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium (gray-zone escalation vs economic deterrence, fragile stability); defense primes typically re-rate higher as procurement and allied-spending narratives strengthen during active multi-theater tension.

Probability

79%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 77d ago

Made

Sep 23

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.