Derived from the 80% composite escalation risk score spanning Taiwan Strait, Hormuz, and DPRK provocation windows, plus Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium (gray-zone escalation vs economic deterrence, fragile stability); defense primes typically re-rate higher as procurement and allied-spending narratives strengthen during active multi-theater tension.

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$249.49

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

L3Harris (LHX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $269.27, 5% from $256.45 at creation)

market37%MISS

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