MISSBrier 0.138

Data-resolved: LHX moved from 256.45 to 247.29 (-3.57%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 269.27. Target not reached. High was 258.04.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongLHX

L3Harris (LHX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $269.27, 5% from $256.45 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.138.

Derived from convergence of Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium, DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch/sanctions escalation, confirmed missile test), and Iran-Israel zero-bargaining-range failure, all sustaining elevated global defense procurement sentiment.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$269.27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $249.49, 4% from $239.89 at creation)

market79%

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L3Harris (LHX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $269.27, 5% from $256.45 at creation)

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