Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $415.73, 5% from $395.93 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 28% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.511.

Widening crack spreads from Hormuz-driven crude volatility and the confirmed sustained Brent >$90 pricing regime support refiner margin expansion, an under-priced second-order effect of the chokepoint crisis.

Probability

28%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 272d ago

Made

Sep 13

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.