Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $410.50, 5% from $390.95 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 83% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Refining margin expansion thesis mirrors the already-confirmed VLO refining move (VLO hit -5% target amid crack-spread compression while crude spiked); MPC benefits similarly from wartime crude price elevation and is not in the covered pending list.

Probability

83%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 9in 10d

Made

Sep 25

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.