TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) weighs on Taiwan-exposed equities (target below $412.94, 5% from $434.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: narrow 25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, china-us coalition stability 30% with critical fracture risk, mixed market impact but low magnitude flagged

Probability

70%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 5in 6d

Made

Sep 21

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.