MISSBrier 0.101

Data-resolved: TSM moved from 428.91 to 434.67 (1.34%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 407.46. Target not reached. Low was 412.55.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongTSM

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $407.46, 5% from $428.91 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 32% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.101.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows narrow 25% bargaining range, fragile stability (30% coalition stability), and critical fracture risk with China in gray-zone escalation/US in economic deterrence; direct Taiwan-exposed semiconductor equity is most sensitive to any deterioration.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$407.46

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) weighs on Taiwan-exposed equities (target below $412.94, 5% from $434.67 at creation)

market70%

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TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $407.46, 5% from $428.91 at creation)

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