Platinum futures (PL) will trade above $1,050 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as industrial hedge demand increases and safe-haven flows spillover from gold amid geopolitical tensions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 13% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.761.

Derived from: Multiple risk scenarios (Hormuz closure, Taiwan gray zone) create industrial supply chain concerns while precious metals complex benefits from 80% geopolitical escalation environment. Platinum typically lags gold but follows during crisis periods. Base rate for 5%+ platinum moves in 30 days ~35%.

Probability

13%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.