MISSBrier 0.148

Data-resolved: FCX moved from 72.73 to 71.54 (-1.64%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 69.09. Target not reached. Low was 67.01.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFCX

FCX will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $69.09, 5% from $72.73 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.148.

China Property/Stimulus Dilemma remains a fragile, unresolved equilibrium (30% coalition stability) and broader wartime risk-off conditions argue for weaker industrial-metals demand, pressuring copper miner FCX.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$69.09

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as broad risk-off equity conditions and weakening copper demand expectations compress industrial metals miners (target below $67.25, 6% from $71.54 at creation)

market75%

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FCX will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $69.09, 5% from $72.73 at creation)

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