Retroactively expired: this was an operational action item, not a falsifiable prediction. Imperative claims (Deploy X, Establish Y, Upgrade Z) cannot be scored and were damaging calibration metrics.
Resolved Mar 19, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 92% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-03-19.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
Deploy VIX monitoring infrastructure immediately - three 82-85% confidence predictions expire March 15 with zero technical coverage
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring infrastructure immediately - system flagged 'unacceptable information gap' with 6 predictions expiring in 7 days
Upgrade regime from 'transitional' to 'pre-crisis' - prediction deadline collapse indicates regime acceleration beyond model assumptions
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