MISSBrier 0.169

Data-resolved: DE moved from 693.53 to 683.99 (-1.38%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 658.85. Target not reached. Low was 665.45.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctDE

Deere & Co (DE) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $658.85, 5% from $693.53 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 41% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.169.

Broad wartime risk-off industrial-sector weakness (already reflected in bearish XLI positioning) extends to distinct industrial names amid deeply oversold SPY/QQQ conditions with no fundamental catalyst for recovery.

Probability: 41%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$658.85

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Deere & Company (DE) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as trade-war escalation risk and broad risk-off conditions pressure export-exposed industrials (target below $650.49, 5% from $684.73 at creation)

market70%

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Deere & Co (DE) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $658.85, 5% from $693.53 at creation)

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