MISSBrier 0.175

Data-resolved: DBC moved from 32.81 to 32.62 (-0.59%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 33.8. Target not reached. High was 33.78.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrongDBC

Broad commodity index ETF DBC will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $33.80, 3% from $32.81 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.175.

Confirmed Hormuz disruption sustaining elevated Brent/WTI pricing plus Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium (energy, agriculture sectors, 'negotiate from strength' medium-magnitude bullish impact) support broad commodity-basket strength beyond single-commodity ETF exposure already covered.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$33.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

DBC (broad commodity index ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $34.20, 4% from $32.88 at creation)

market85%

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Broad commodity index ETF DBC will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $33.80, 3% from $32.81 at creation)

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