DBC (broad commodity index ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $34.20, 4% from $32.88 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range assessment (50%, sufficient for agreement but escalation probability still 67%) creating an energy-driven upside skew across the broad commodity basket.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 24in 25d

Made

Sep 24

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.