Biotech sector ETF XBI will close below $148 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and failed oversold bounces persist.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 58% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-03.

XBI's recent 7-day bounce attempt above $159.50 was denied (0.91% actual move vs required target), confirming momentum failure under the risk_off regime and 88%-confidence thesis of no fundamental catalyst for sustained recovery.

Probability

58%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 3in 4d

Made

Sep 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.