HITBrier 0.325

Early-confirmed: XBI hit target below 158 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 157.69 (started at 163.81).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXBI

XBI (biotech ETF) will close below $158.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.325.

Derived from confirmed risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38) and the high-beta small-cap volatility pattern already observed in IWM (ATR 5.74); XBI as a high-beta, rate-sensitive sector is exposed to the same risk-off chaos without an offsetting technical support level as strong as SPY/QQQ.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$158

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Biotech sector ETF XBI will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days, as sub-30 RSI capitulation levels historically precede short-term mean-reversion bounces.

market56%MISS

Biotech sector ETF XBI will close below $148 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and failed oversold bounces persist.

market58%

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XBI (biotech ETF) will close below $158.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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