MISSBrier 0.311

Data-resolved: XBI moved from 156.82 to 158.25 (0.91%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18. Target: above 159.5. Target not reached. High was 159.66.

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

LONG correctXBI

Biotech sector ETF XBI will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days, as sub-30 RSI capitulation levels historically precede short-term mean-reversion bounces.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.311.

Derived from: technical fear-extreme readings (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4) cited in thesis as historically preceding mean-reversion bounces, applied to a comparably oversold high-beta risk sector; red-team critique of RSI dismissal factored into moderated confidence.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1811d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$159.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XBI (biotech ETF) will close below $158.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%HIT

Biotech sector ETF XBI will close below $148 on at least one trading day within 14 days as risk-off conditions and failed oversold bounces persist.

market58%

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Biotech sector ETF XBI will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days, as sub-30 RSI capitulation levels historically precede short-term mean-reversion bounces.

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