Derived from: the Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis's 53% escalation probability and fragile gray-zone equilibrium, alongside the active thesis's risk-off assessment. QQQ's bullish technical trend is contrary evidence.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 26in 13d
Made: Oct 12

Price Target$589.86

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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