EUR/USD will trade below 1.0400 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-02 at 25% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-16. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions (67% escalation probability) creating EUR weakness, combined with Fed rate cycle zero Nash equilibria forcing USD strength. Current oversold conditions in risk assets suggest continued flight to USD safety.

Probability

25%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

May 16136d ago

Made

May 2

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.