MISSBrier 0.134

Data-resolved: EURUSD moved from 1.16 to 1.15 (-1.28%) during 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-18. Target: below 1.14. Target not reached. Low was 1.15.

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEURUSD

EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (July meeting, three dissents favoring a hike) sustains dollar strength against the euro amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-04 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.134.

Derived from: confirmed Fed hawkish hold with persistent inflation-risk guidance (resolved 100% confirmed), Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium (hawkish hold, bearish, 55% confidence), wartime risk-off dollar demand

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 1811d ago
Made: Sep 4

Price Target$1.14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade within a tight 1.08–1.12 range on every trading day within 14 days, reflecting the ECB's active reinforcement of euro stability narratives under Lagarde despite the broader wartime risk-off backdrop.

market19%MISS

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0400 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days

market25%PARTIAL

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EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (July meeting, three dissents favoring a hike) sustains dollar strength against the euro amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

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