MISSBrier 0.038

Data-resolved: EURUSD moved from 1.15 to 1.16 (0.35%) during 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-15. Target: below 1.1. Target not reached. Low was 1.15.

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

Market

FLAT wrongEURUSD

EUR/USD will trade within a tight 1.08–1.12 range on every trading day within 14 days, reflecting the ECB's active reinforcement of euro stability narratives under Lagarde despite the broader wartime risk-off backdrop.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-01 at 19% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-15. Brier score 0.038.

Derived from: ECB Intelligence Update (Lagarde reinforcing euro stability narratives, high-level diplomatic engagement) combined with absence of a specific Fed/ECB divergence catalyst in the current Bayesian set.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 1545d ago
Made: Aug 1

Price Target$1.1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (July meeting, three dissents favoring a hike) sustains dollar strength against the euro amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

market37%MISS

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0400 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days

market25%PARTIAL

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EUR/USD will trade within a tight 1.08–1.12 range on every trading day within 14 days, reflecting the ECB's active reinforcement of euro stability narratives under Lagarde despite the broader wartime risk-off backdrop.

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