NVDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $213.35, 5% from $224.58 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows critical coalition fracture risk (30% stability) in a chip-supply-chain-critical theater, compounding QQQ's deeply negative MACD histogram (-3.621) and unconfirmed RSI reversal; NVDA is a direct semiconductor proxy not currently in the covered pending list.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$213.35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

NVDA will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $231.39, 6% from $218.29 at creation)

market40%MISS

NVIDIA (NVDA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) weighs on semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing (target below $218.84, 5% from $230.36 at creation)

market40%HIT

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NVDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $213.35, 5% from $224.58 at creation)

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