HITBrier 0.363

Early-confirmed: NVDA hit target below 218.84 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 218.36 (started at 230.36).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctNVDA

NVIDIA (NVDA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) weighs on semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing (target below $218.84, 5% from $230.36 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 40% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.363.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium: bargaining range 25% (narrow), escalation probability 53%, fracture risk critical, china-us coalition stability 30% - directly implicates semiconductor supply chain risk premium.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$218.84

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

NVDA will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $231.39, 6% from $218.29 at creation)

market40%MISS

NVDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $213.35, 5% from $224.58 at creation)

market85%

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