MISSBrier 0.161

Data-resolved: NVDA moved from 218.29 to 224.58 (2.88%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 231.39. Target not reached. High was 229.98.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctNVDA

NVDA will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $231.39, 6% from $218.29 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.161.

Technical fear-extreme readings (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4) at or below lower Bollinger Bands historically precede mean-reversion bounces per red-team analysis; semiconductor beta to any Taiwan Strait de-escalation news (fragile 30% coalition stability could stabilize as easily as deteriorate) supports a tactical bounce scenario distinct from the already-confirmed prior NVDA downside prediction.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$231.39

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

NVIDIA (NVDA) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) weighs on semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing (target below $218.84, 5% from $230.36 at creation)

market40%HIT

NVDA will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $213.35, 5% from $224.58 at creation)

market85%

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NVDA will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $231.39, 6% from $218.29 at creation)

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