MISSBrier 0.397

Web search found iron ore price surge hit $106 amid supply disruptions on March 26, 2026, but no evidence of prices reaching $120 per metric ton on any trading day. The highest reported price found was $106. Actual: $106 peak, Required: $120 on at least 3 days, $106 < $120 therefore threshold NOT met. No evidence of iron ore futures trading above $120 during the prediction window.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrong

Iron ore futures will trade above $120 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build while steel production faces energy cost pressures from Middle East conflict

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.397.

Derived from: Game theory analysis showing China pursuing calculating strategy with infrastructure implications, combined with wartime regime energy cost pressures. Live intelligence on China economy trade showing infrastructure development priorities. Historical iron ore price spikes during Middle East energy crises as steel production costs rise while demand remains supported

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 22160d ago
Made: Mar 23

Price Target$120

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iron ore futures will trade above $120 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as China's infrastructure stimulus expectations build while steel production faces energy cost pressures from Middle East conflict

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