EXPIRED

Retroactively expired: this was an operational action item, not a falsifiable prediction. Imperative claims (Deploy X, Establish Y, Upgrade Z) cannot be scored and were damaging calibration metrics.

Resolved Mar 19, 2026

Geopolitical

Upgrade regime from 'transitional' to 'pre-crisis' - 80% geopolitical risk vs 50% market sentiment creates dangerous complacency, zero Nash equilibria indicate inherent instability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 92% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-03-19.

Probability: 92%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 15198d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Establish real-time SPY support level monitoring at -1.31% with automated alerts - technical gap during highest-risk convergence window

geopolitical92%EXPIRED

Deploy VIX monitoring infrastructure immediately - seven 82-92% confidence predictions expire in 7 days, system shows 'unacknowledged' status indicating critical failure

geopolitical92%EXPIRED

Monitor WTI 3x position (-£7.98) for oil shock risk during October 7 Anniversary and 1973 Oil Embargo Anniversary convergence

geopolitical89%HIT

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Upgrade regime from 'transitional' to 'pre-crisis' - 80% geopolitical risk vs 50% market sentiment creates dangerous complacency, zero Nash equilibria indicate inherent instability

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