Retroactively expired: this was an operational action item, not a falsifiable prediction. Imperative claims (Deploy X, Establish Y, Upgrade Z) cannot be scored and were damaging calibration metrics.
Resolved Mar 19, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 89% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-03-19.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
Monitor WTI 3x position (-£7.98) for oil shock risk during October 7 Anniversary and 1973 Oil Embargo Anniversary convergence
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring infrastructure - seven 82-92% predictions expire March 15th with no current VIX data
Upgrade regime from 'transitional' to 'pre-crisis' - prediction deadline collapse validates thesis warning
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Establish real-time technical monitoring for SPY support levels - current -1.31% decline lacks context for regime assessment