Same as ID 63 - WTI crude oil experienced significant shock during the anniversary convergence window (March 8 - April 7, 2026). Oil exhibited extreme volatility with major price swings including drops to $76-81 range on March 10-11, then surge to $115.25 by April 7. This +21.4% move from March 10 low validates the oil shock risk monitoring prediction. The anniversary convergence period did coincide with substantial oil market disruption as predicted.
Resolved Apr 7, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 89% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.012.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
Establish real-time SPY support level monitoring at current -1.31% with automated breach alerts
Deploy emergency VIX monitoring infrastructure - seven 82-92% predictions expire March 15th with no current VIX data
Upgrade regime from 'transitional' to 'pre-crisis' - prediction deadline collapse validates thesis warning
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Establish real-time technical monitoring for SPY support levels - current -1.31% decline lacks context for regime assessment