HITBrier 0.194

Early-confirmed: GOOGL, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-30 through 2026-10-14. Target: above 351.15. Target hit on: 2026-10-09. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Market

LONGGOOGL

GOOGL will close at least 3% above its September 30 closing price on at least one trading day by October 14, 2026 (target above $351.15, 3% from $340.92 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-30 at 56% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-10. Brier score 0.194.

Derived from: the market layer's bullish QQQ trend, RSI of 59.6 and positive MACD histogram of 2.834, which counter the broader risk-off assessment.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 14in 1d
Made: Sep 30

Price Target$351.15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $331.92, 5% from $349.39 at creation)

market70%MISS

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $352.00, 4% from $338.46 at creation)

market27%MISS

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GOOGL will close at least 3% above its September 30 closing price on at least one trading day by October 14, 2026 (target above $351.15, 3% from $340.92 at creation)

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