HITBrier 0.441

Early-confirmed: ASML hit target below 1629.14 on 2026-09-14, 2026-09-15. Current price: 1591.48 (started at 1714.88).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctASML

ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1629.14, 5% from $1714.88 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.441.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian fragile equilibrium (25% bargaining range, 53% escalation probability, critical china-us fracture risk) threatens semiconductor supply-chain exposed names beyond the already-covered SMH/SOXX sector ETFs.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$1,629.14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1511.91, 5% from $1591.48 at creation)

market85%

ASML Holding (ASML) will decline more than 6% within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range create semiconductor supply chain uncertainty ahead of the April 14 Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

market32%HIT

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ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1629.14, 5% from $1714.88 at creation)

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