HITBrier 0.462

ASML price data shows decline from creation period to deadline. Looking at March 22 (creation date), ASML was around 1375-1380 range based on March 23 open of 1359.73. Current price March 29: 1302.47. Calculating decline: ((1302.47 - 1375) / 1375) * 100 = -5.27%. Stock also closed March 27 at 1302.47. Maximum decline appears around 5.35% based on available data. Actual: 5.35%, Required: >6.0%, 5.35 < 6.0 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct (stock did decline) but magnitude insufficient.

Resolved Mar 29, 2026

Market

SHORT correctASML

ASML Holding (ASML) will decline more than 6% within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range create semiconductor supply chain uncertainty ahead of the April 14 Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 32% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-29. Brier score 0.462.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Taiwan Strait Crisis with 25% bargaining range (NARROW-fragile) + 53% escalation probability + Mars-Saturn Conjunction April 14 convergence with semiconductor sector exposure + no existing ASML coverage in pending predictions

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 29184d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1629.14, 5% from $1714.88 at creation)

market34%HIT

ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1511.91, 5% from $1591.48 at creation)

market85%

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ASML Holding (ASML) will decline more than 6% within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range create semiconductor supply chain uncertainty ahead of the April 14 Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

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