ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1511.91, 5% from $1591.48 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis fragile equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressuring semiconductor supply-chain-exposed equities; ASML already confirmed a >5% decline in the prior window, and the underlying Taiwan overhang remains unresolved.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 16

Price Target$1,511.91

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1629.14, 5% from $1714.88 at creation)

market34%HIT

ASML Holding (ASML) will decline more than 6% within 7 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range create semiconductor supply chain uncertainty ahead of the April 14 Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence

market32%HIT

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ASML will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $1511.91, 5% from $1591.48 at creation)

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