MISSBrier 0.194

Web search found news of Iran war activities and banking sector concerns within the prediction window (March 30 - April 13, 2026), including 'Iran war casts shadow over HSBC and StanChart Middle East ambitions' (March 12, Reuters) and multiple articles about Iran military operations. However, no evidence found of at least 2 major international banks specifically announcing Middle East exposure reductions or credit facility suspensions during the 14-day window. Required: 2 bank announcements, Actual: 0 confirmed announcements, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 13, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 major international banks will announce Middle East exposure reductions or credit facility suspensions within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave offensive operations escalate counterparty risks

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-30 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-13. Brier score 0.194.

Derived from: Iran IRGC intelligence showing sustained 81-wave missile campaign, wartime regime creating elevated counterparty risks, and historical banking sector risk reduction patterns during Middle East conflicts

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 13169d ago
Made: Mar 30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least 3 major Middle Eastern airlines will announce route suspensions or capacity reductions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaigns against US and Israeli targets (documented 81 strike waves) escalate insurance costs beyond sustainable operating thresholds

geopolitical42%PARTIAL

At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

geopolitical46%MISS

Indonesia will announce emergency food export restrictions or agricultural protectionism measures within 7 days as wartime regime supply chain stress and Erev Pesach convergence create domestic resource preservation pressure

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At least 2 major international banks will announce Middle East exposure reductions or credit facility suspensions within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave offensive operations escalate counterparty risks

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