MISSBrier 0.165

Search within evidence window 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-06 found no announcements of Indonesian emergency food export restrictions or agricultural protectionism measures. Results only show general global food security discussions but no specific Indonesian policy announcements. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce emergency food export restrictions or agricultural protectionism measures within 7 days as wartime regime supply chain stress and Erev Pesach convergence create domestic resource preservation pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-30 at 41% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.165.

Derived from: Current wartime regime creating supply disruption pressures globally. Indonesia as major agricultural exporter faces domestic vs export allocation tensions during food security crises. Erev Pesach + 9 convergent events signal creating policy decision windows.

Probability: 41%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Indonesia will announce emergency food export restrictions or agricultural protectionism measures within 7 days as wartime regime supply chain stress and Erev Pesach convergence create domestic resource preservation pressure

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