MISSBrier 0.151

No evidence found of Turkey announcing emergency economic measures or capital controls within the March 29 - April 5 window. Search results included general regional crisis coverage and US Senate actions but no specific Turkish economic policy announcements. Actual Turkish announcements: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Geopolitical

Turkey will announce at least one emergency economic measure or capital control within 7 days as regional escalation pressures and energy import costs create currency defense requirements

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-05. Brier score 0.151.

Derived from: Wartime regime with Iran escalation probability at 20% despite 0% Fearon bargaining range. Turkey's strategic position between conflict zones creates economic pressure. Knowledge bank shows regional instability affecting neighboring economies.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 5177d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Turkey will announce at least one emergency economic measure or capital control within 7 days as regional escalation pressures and energy import costs create currency defense requirements

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