MISSBrier 0.204

Found evidence of regional energy crisis including Strait of Hormuz oil shock (March 29), Australian fuel crisis response (March 30), and attacks on Saudi base (March 27), but no evidence of Middle Eastern countries announcing emergency fuel rationing or energy distribution restrictions. One result shows 'Egypt Emergency Energy-Saving Measures Transform Regional Economy 2026' from March 29, but Egypt is typically classified as North African rather than Middle Eastern in geopolitical contexts. Actual Middle Eastern rationing announcements: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major Middle Eastern country will announce emergency fuel rationing or energy distribution restrictions within 7 days as Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure create supply allocation pressures

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-05. Brier score 0.204.

Derived from: Live intelligence documents Iranian multi-wave missile campaign targeting energy infrastructure. Confirmed attacks on Gulf energy facilities create regional supply pressures requiring emergency allocation measures.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 5177d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Australia will announce at least one emergency defense procurement authorization or regional security partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range threaten Indo-Pacific stability

geopolitical16%MISS

At least 3 major Japanese corporations will announce Middle East operations suspensions or supply chain diversifications within 7 days as escalation probability of 53% in Taiwan Strait combines with confirmed Persian Gulf shipping disruptions

geopolitical15%MISS

Switzerland will announce emergency energy security measures or rationing protocols within 14 days as European energy crisis intensifies and landlocked geography creates supply vulnerability despite financial safe haven status

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At least one major Middle Eastern country will announce emergency fuel rationing or energy distribution restrictions within 7 days as Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure create supply allocation pressures

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