MISSBrier 0.025

Searched for Australia emergency defense procurement authorizations or regional security partnerships during March 29 - April 12, 2026. Search returned 0 relevant results within the evidence window (15 results were excluded for being outside the window). No announcements found of emergency defense procurement authorization or regional security partnerships by Australia during the prediction timeframe. Actual announcements: 0, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 13, 2026

Geopolitical

Australia will announce at least one emergency defense procurement authorization or regional security partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range threaten Indo-Pacific stability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-29 at 16% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-13. Brier score 0.025.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Taiwan Strait Crisis has narrow 25% bargaining range indicating fragile stability. Reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' has 39% hit rate, adjusting confidence downward from this anchor.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 12170d ago
Made: Mar 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Australia will announce at least one emergency defense procurement authorization or regional security partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait tensions with only 25% Fearon bargaining range threaten Indo-Pacific stability

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