MISSBrier 0.276

Data-resolved: LQD, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-09 through 2026-10-09. Target: above 107. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 102.41 (2026-10-09).

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Market

LONG wrongLQD

LQD (investment-grade corporate bond ETF) will close above $107.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 53% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-10. Brier score 0.276.

US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian shows fragile 38%-range mixed equilibrium (front-load short bills vs term-premium demand); flight-to-quality demand for high-grade credit amid wartime risk-off and Fear & Greed 38 supports LQD outperformance versus high-yield credit.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 97d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$107

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Investment-grade credit ETF LQD will close below $103.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market55%MISS

LQD will close at least 2% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $101.80).

market76%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

LQD (investment-grade corporate bond ETF) will close above $107.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture