US Treasury Supply Crisis Bayesian shows fragile 38%-range mixed equilibrium (front-load short bills vs term-premium demand); flight-to-quality demand for high-grade credit amid wartime risk-off and Fear & Greed 38 supports LQD outperformance versus high-yield credit.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$107

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Investment-grade credit ETF LQD will close below $103.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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LQD will close at least 2% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $101.80).

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