MISSBrier 0.307

Data-resolved: LQD moved from 105.48 to 104.70 (-0.74%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 103.5. Target not reached. Low was 104.05.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctLQD

Investment-grade credit ETF LQD will close below $103.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.307.

Confirmed wartime risk-off regime and elevated credit stress signals (already reflected in the pending HYG sub-$77 thesis) suggest the stress could broaden from high-yield into investment-grade credit, pressuring LQD off its current 105.48 level.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$103.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

LQD (investment-grade corporate bond ETF) will close above $107.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market53%

LQD will close at least 2% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $101.80).

market76%

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Investment-grade credit ETF LQD will close below $103.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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