Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian assessment shows zero stable equilibria and a bearish 'hawkish hold + guidance' outcome (55% confidence); combined with wartime risk-off credit stress already flagged via HYG deterioration, investment-grade credit (LQD) is vulnerable to spread widening.

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$101.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

LQD (investment-grade corporate bond ETF) will close above $107.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market53%

Investment-grade credit ETF LQD will close below $103.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market55%MISS

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