HITBrier 0.030

Early-confirmed: WMT, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-25 through 2026-10-09. Target: below 104.36. Target hit on: 2026-09-30. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 1, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongWMT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $104.36, 3% from $107.59 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 83% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-01. Brier score 0.030.

Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed at 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold with no fundamental catalyst) argues for mean-reversion downside in recently extended consumer-staples names after WMT's confirmed run-up above 109.93 on 2026-09-22/23.

Probability: 83%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 95d ago
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$104.36

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $109.93, 3% from $106.73 at creation)

market85%HIT

WMT will close at least 2% above its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target above $106.35, 2% from $104.26 at creation)

market68%HIT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $111.43, 4% from $107.14 at creation)

market52%

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Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $104.36, 3% from $107.59 at creation)

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