MISSBrier 0.274

Data-resolved: WMT moved from 107.14 to 106.73 (-0.38%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 111.43. Target not reached. High was 109.74.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongWMT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $111.43, 4% from $107.14 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 52% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.274.

Wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption) typically rotates capital toward defensive consumer staples/discount retail; XLP's parallel bullish thesis in the trading actions supports a similar defensive-rotation move into WMT.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$111.43

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $109.93, 3% from $106.73 at creation)

market85%HIT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $104.36, 3% from $107.59 at creation)

market83%

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Walmart (WMT) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $111.43, 4% from $107.14 at creation)

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