GBP/USD will trade below 1.335 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off dollar demand and hawkish Fed repricing weigh on sterling.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.450.

Derived from: risk-off regime classification, Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian bearish equilibrium (hawkish hold), and 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score driving dollar-safe-haven flows.

Probability

33%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.