HITBrier 0.023

Early-confirmed: GBP/USD hit target below 1.325 on 2026-09-22, 2026-09-24. Current price: 1.32 (started at 1.34).

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT correctGBP/USD

GBP/USD will trade below 1.325 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.023.

Risk-off regime and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed rate cycle scenario (bearish, 55% confidence) support continued dollar demand as a safe-haven flow, pressuring GBP/USD lower alongside broader FX weakness already seen in AUD/USD and USD/JPY.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 212d ago
Made: Sep 18

Price Target$1.325

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GBP/USD will trade above 1.328 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market85%HIT

GBP/USD will trade below 1.335 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off dollar demand and hawkish Fed repricing weigh on sterling.

market33%HIT

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GBP/USD will trade below 1.325 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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