Market
SHORT correctGBP/USDGBP/USD will trade below 1.325 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.023.
Risk-off regime and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed rate cycle scenario (bearish, 55% confidence) support continued dollar demand as a safe-haven flow, pressuring GBP/USD lower alongside broader FX weakness already seen in AUD/USD and USD/JPY.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 2in 3d
- Made
Price Target$1.325
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.