HITBrier 0.023

Early-confirmed: GBP/USD, touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-24 through 2026-10-01. Target: above 1.328. Target hit on: 2026-09-28. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Market

LONGGBP/USD

GBP/USD will trade above 1.328 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-29. Brier score 0.023.

Cross-asset correlation with EUR/USD dollar-weakness thesis tied to the Bayesian Fed hold scenario; contrarian short-term bounce against recent GBP/USD weakness (already confirmed below 1.325).

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$1.328

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

GBP/USD will trade below 1.325 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%HIT

GBP/USD will trade below 1.335 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off dollar demand and hawkish Fed repricing weigh on sterling.

market33%HIT

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GBP/USD will trade above 1.328 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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