MISSBrier 0.033

Data-resolved: SMH moved from 567.01 to 568.53 (0.27%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-14. Target: above 589.69. Target not reached. High was 580.57.

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctSMH

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions materializes despite the Taiwan Strait overhang (target above $589.69, 4% from $567.01 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.033.

Contrarian technical signal from deeply oversold SPY/QQQ RSI (27.3/28.4) and red-team argument that extreme RSI readings historically precede short-covering bounces; SMH proxies the semiconductor exposure to Taiwan Strait tension named in active signals.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1415d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$589.69

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Semiconductor ETF SMH will underperform QQQ by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market40%HIT

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close below $543.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%HIT

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

SMH will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $577.09, 5% from $607.46 at creation)

market83%

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions materializes despite the Taiwan Strait overhang (target above $589.69, 4% from $567.01 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture