HITBrier 0.357

Early-confirmed: SMH hit target below 550 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 541.50 (started at 567.01).

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

SHORT correctSMH

SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 40% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.357.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows China pursuing Gray zone escalation against US Economic deterrence with critical china-us coalition fracture risk (30% stability); semiconductors are explicitly flagged as a key affected sector, pressuring SMH from the current $567.01.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$550

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions materializes despite the Taiwan Strait overhang (target above $589.69, 4% from $567.01 at creation)

market18%MISS

Semiconductor ETF SMH will underperform QQQ by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market30%MISS

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close below $543.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%

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SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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