SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 40% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.357.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows China pursuing Gray zone escalation against US Economic deterrence with critical china-us coalition fracture risk (30% stability); semiconductors are explicitly flagged as a key affected sector, pressuring SMH from the current $567.01.
- Probability
- 40%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 227d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.