MISSBrier 0.089

Creation (2026-09-06): QQQ=718.96, SMH=567.01. End of window (2026-09-18): QQQ close=721.45, SMH close=573.00. QQQ return=(721.45-718.96)/718.96=+0.346%. SMH return=(573.00-567.01)/567.01=+1.057%. Relative performance = SMH% - QQQ% = 1.057-0.346=+0.711% (SMH actually OUTperformed QQQ, opposite of predicted underperformance). Required: SMH underperform QQQ by >=3%. Actual is +0.71% outperformance, therefore threshold NOT met and direction incorrect.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongSMH

Semiconductor ETF SMH will underperform QQQ by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.089.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, gray-zone escalation ongoing) implies semiconductor supply-chain risk premium should widen relative to broader tech, mirroring the prior confirmed SOXX underperformance pattern.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions materializes despite the Taiwan Strait overhang (target above $589.69, 4% from $567.01 at creation)

market18%MISS

SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market40%HIT

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close below $543.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%HIT

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Semiconductor ETF SMH will underperform QQQ by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

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